The summer of 2024 is set to be significantly warmer than usual across Spain, with a particular emphasis on increased temperatures in the Canary Islands, according to the spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Rubén del Campo.
During a press conference presenting the climatic summary for spring and the seasonal forecast for summer, Del Campo said that this summer could rank among the top 20% warmest recorded, especially in the northern third of mainland Spain and the eastern Canary Islands (Gran Canaria, Lanzarote, and Fuerteventura). The probability of this happening is between 50% and 70%, although the likelihood is lower for the rest of Spain.
In addition to higher temperatures, Del Campo also forecasted below-average rainfall for the upcoming quarter, particularly in the Canary Islands and the north and interior regions of Spain. However, he advised caution with this prediction compared to the more certain temperature outlook.
The AEMET spokesperson added that Europe in general is expected to experience similar weather patterns, with more than a 70% chance that southern Europe and northern Africa will also rank among the top 20% warmest summers on record.
Del Campo also reviewed the spring climate, reporting that spring 2024 was the tenth warmest in Spain since AEMET began records in 1961 and the eighth warmest since 2006. This indicates a clear trend of increasingly rising temperatures over the last 18 years, highlighting the ongoing climate change in Spain.
Rainfall this spring was close to the seasonal average, with 189.4 litres per square metre recorded, which is 5% above normal. However, there were notable regional and monthly variations. The far north experienced an extremely wet spring, while the southeast of the Peninsula faced extremely dry conditions, as did the Canary Islands.
In March, rainfall was double the normal amount nationally, making it the fourth wettest March of the 21st century, largely due to Storm Nelson during Easter. April, however, was the fourth driest April of the century, with only half the usual rainfall. May also saw below-average rainfall, with only two-thirds of the normal amount recorded. The heavy rainfall in March balanced out the overall spring rainfall deficit.
The period from January 1st to June 16th, 2024, ranks as the third warmest year on record, trailing only 2017 and 2022, though Del Campo remarked that the differences are minimal, nearly resulting in a three-way tie.
