STORM UPDATE: Latest forecasts show that it will arrive in the Canaries on New Years Eve
Storm Francis is set to dominate the final hours of 2025 in the Canary Islands, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, thunderstorms, and dangerous sea conditions. According to the latest forecast updates, the storm will start to have an effect from today, Wednesday 31st December, as the cold front will move directly across the archipelago.
Forecast models indicate that the most adverse conditions will occur between 3:00pm and 9:00pm, when, during this six-hour window, heavy downpours, thunderstorms, and powerful wind gusts are expected to come in from the west across El Hierro, La Gomera and La Palma, heading towards the west and south of Tenerife and Gran Canaria.
The Government of the Canary Islands has declared a regional rain alert and activated weather alerts across several islands, while AEMET has issued yellow advisories for multiple adverse phenomena.
Gran Canaria
Between 3:00pm and 9:00pm, the island faces yellow warnings for rain and thunderstorms on the east, south, and west slopes, where more than 20mm of rain per hour is expected.
Significant swell is forecast for the northern coast, with waves up to five metres, and wind gusts in mid-altitude areas may reach 80 km/h.
Tenerife
Tenerife will also be under yellow warnings for wind and rain.
Gusts on Teide could exceed 90 km/h, while rainfall rates of 20mm in one hour are forecast on the southeastern and south-western sides during the storm’s peak intensity.
Other Islands
The rest of the western islands face similar conditions, with heavy rainfall and strong winds expected throughout the afternoon and evening.
Lanzarote and Fuerteventura do not have wind warnings activated, but they are both under yellow advisories for rain and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Despite the storm arriving from the west and peaking on the afternoon of the 31st, unstable conditions will continue into the first days of 2026. Coastal warnings may remain in force until Sunday.
Several local councils have already cancelled or rescheduled New Year’s events due to the worsening forecast.
Coastal Alerts
A coastal alert begins at 2:00am on Thursday, 1st January, affecting:
- The north, west, and southwest of El Hierro
- The north, west, and south of La Palma
- The west and southwest of La Gomera
- The north and west of the remaining islands
Southwesterly winds of force 7 and combined seas of 2.5 to 3 metres are expected on New Year’s Day, rising to 4 metres or more from 2nd January. Conditions will deteriorate further approaching the weekend due to the full moon on 3rd January and the resulting spring tides, with tide coefficients rising from 80–83 on 1st January to 87–89 on 2nd January.
Wind Alerts
A wind alert remains active from 3:00am on 1st January for the highlands and peaks of La Palma and Tenerife, with pre-alert status across the rest of the archipelago.
Moderate to strong southwesterly winds are expected in mid-altitude zones and high terrain, with locally very strong gusts possibly exceeding 90 km/h on Tenerife’s highest peaks.
From the afternoon of 1st January, winds will shift to the west. In Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, winds will blow from the south, veering to the southwest and strengthening overnight.
Authorities urge residents and visitors to take precautions, particularly during the 3:00pm and 9:00pm window this afternoon and throughout New Year's Day when Storm Francis will be at its most intense.
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