The PSOE wins the elections but not with enough majority to govern alone

The “Pact of Flowers”, the coalition that has governed the Canary Islands for the last four years led by the PSOE, will not be happening again this term as voters revalidated their support for the PSOE at yesterday’s elections, but opened the door to a new political colour for the islands headed by the Partido Popular and the Coalición Canaria.

The Socialists managed to win the vote in these elections as the leading political force in the Canary Islands, with just over 283,000 votes (32.3%) and the largest number of councillors (406).

However, two of its partners in the Pact of Flowers suffered a severe setback: Podemos lost all four seats gained in 2019 and has subsequently disappeared from the Canary Islands Parliament, while Nueva Canarias managed to maintain four (losing one) but failed to reach the 6-8 that they were aiming for. They only achieved representation in Gran Canaria, their stronghold (3 seats), and Fuerteventura (1).

The Pact of Flowers withers and opens the door to a new government.
Although Casimiro Curbelo once again won La Gomera by a landslide and ratified the three deputies of 2019, the Pact of Flowers only won 30 seats, six less than necessary to form a government (36 are required).

The PP, for its part, climbed the national ladder on the islands and added five more deputies than in 2019 (it wins one more on four islands and another on the regional list). Despite the good results, they lost the only Cabildo that they governed (La Palma), as the volcanic eruption took its toll on the public’s decision.

At the regional level, in the vote for Parliament, it achieved its best results in the last twelve years, reaching 16 deputies, partly due to the reorganization of the space of the right after the slump of Ciudadanos, which disappeared from the regional Chamber. In 2019 they got 62,115 votes; yesterday just 3,259.

However, despite this growth, the Partido Popular failed to overtake the Coalición Canaria (CC), as some surveys anticipated, and remain as the third-ranked party in the islands by seats.

The CC has weakened slightly after losing a deputy but continues to be the second-largest force in the archipelago. Its 19 seats were obtained in Tenerife, the island where they have the most weight, with six deputies, La Palma (4), Lanzarote, and Fuerteventura, with three each. In Gran Canaria, they only get one, which is one less than in 2019.

It must be taken into account that the Herreñas of Agrupación Herreña Independiente (AHI) decided to run independently this year, without joining the CC, and they achieved a deputy who can be key in the scenario of pacts that will start to be negotiated today.

The CC and PP don’t have enough seats to form a government together without the support from others, as they are two seats short of forming a new government. Many would welcome this as they have a fair few points in common, such as a reduction in taxation.

Vox are the big surprise of the day.
The big surprise on Election Day was Vox, which broke into the Canary Islands Parliament with four deputies (two for Gran Canaria, one for Tenerife, and one from the autonomous list).

This could lead to them being involved in a PP-CC pact, although the nationalists have repeated on several occasions that they would not agree with this formation as their policies differ too much.

A PSOE and CC pact would also be possible if only looking at the number of seats, as collectively they would have 42 deputies which is more than enough to govern the islands. Although during the campaign the confrontations between socialists and nationalists have been direct so this would be unlikely.

Deadline for the formation of a new government.
According to the terms established by the Statute of Autonomy of the Canary Islands, on June 27th the 70 elected deputies must elect the president of the regional Parliament. By then the parties that aspire to govern must have already closed a pact.

The person who presents himself as a candidate for the Government will have to have an absolute majority in the first vote that is carried out in the Chamber, otherwise, a second vote will take place 48 hours later.

If this is the case, he may be invested by a simple majority. If, two months after the first investiture vote, none of the proposed candidates has achieved the confidence of Parliament, it will be dissolved and there will be new elections.

Participation in the elections this year rose almost four points in the Canary Islands, although it should be noted that almost 50% of the Canaries decided not to vote.