Of the four possible routes that Tomás Gimeno, could have chosen to flee the island by sea with his two young daughters on April 27th, analysts believe that the option of choosing the Caribbean is the most likely, despite the fact that there would be definite difficulties taking children as young as 1 and 6 years old on this journey.
This analysis is taking place as it seems more likely day by day that the theory of an escape by sea is how he has taken his daughters from their mother and left the Canary Islands. As has already been reported he left on his own pleasure boat from the Santa Cruz marina during the night, which was found empty, drifting outside the port of Guimar.
No one saw the girls with him as he loaded his boat, nor were they recorded by the cameras that captured him doing so, but the fact that he was seen loading packages that apparently contained clothing and even a child seat that was later found in the sea near where his boat was found have given some consistency to this line of research.
In addition, Tomás is an experienced sailor, has the financial capacity to afford this escape, and has contacts in various places including Peru and Cape Verde. Finally, friends and relatives have all said that a plan like this, even though it seems bizarre, without doubt fits the character of this man from Tenerife.
To carry it out this plan, the known facts indicate that Tomás had to make a transfer from his pleasure boat to a bigger vessel, but from there it is only speculation at this stage.
ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE ROUTES:
As has been suggested, The Caribbean route is the most plausible for the experts consulted, for several reasons. In its favour is the fact that it is the busiest route, to the point that the presence of families making this crossing is not unusual. However it is the longest and can take between 16 and 20 days, depending on the wind.
Another reason is that after the Sargasso Sea, there are various ports to choose from in Trinidad and Tobago, the Bahamas etc, where it would be easy to go unnoticed and, from there, cross to the main continent to continue to his country of choice.
Also the option of heading to Fortaleza in Brazil, after passing through Cape Verde, also offers some plausibility. The estimated duration of this crossing is two weeks, although passing through Cape Verde does have the risk of being intercepted.
The third option would be to head towards mainland Spain or the Mediterranean with a possible stopover in Madeira, which only has the advantage of being there in a few days, but it would mean entering an area even more controlled by the authorities.
Finally, the African alternative is not really contemplated by the experts as it is too dangerous, especially with children on board. It is rare to see a family on a sailboat in those waters, where in addition, there is the strong chance of pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, so poses too much of a risk.
INVESTIGATION:
The investigation is ongoing, in not only Tenerife but the rest of the Canary Islands, and an international arrest warrant has been issued for Tomas on the grounds of kidnapping his young daughters.
Guardia Civil Investigators confirmed yesterday, that there were no large withdrawals or suspicious activity on his bank accounts in the days leading up to his disappearance, outside of those traced for legitimate business reasons.
