Geological experts are keeping a close eye on Mount Teide after data presented at a meeting of the Canary Islands Volcanic Emergency Plan (PEVOLCA), revealed changes in the volcanic system. Since 2016, seismic, geodetic, and geochemical anomalies have been recorded, with activity accelerating since 2022.
This could indicate increasing pressure within Tenerife’s hydrothermal system.
One significant observation is a gradual uplift of the ground, with GPS stations recording a total elevation of one centimetre since 2023. While seemingly minor, this is the maximum measurable threshold of the current system, explained Itahiza Domínguez, director of the National Geographic Institute (IGN) in the Canary Islands.
Domínguez reassured that the slow, millimetre-scale deformation does not suggest imminent magma intrusion or an eruption in the short-to-medium term. Nonetheless, the changes have prompted authorities to bolster monitoring efforts.
Ground Uplift and Seismic Swarms
This ground uplift aligns with five seismic swarms detected west of Las Cañadas since 2016. Although the data might contain atmospheric interference or "noise," Domínguez stated that the IGN is 99% confident that the deformation reflects a genuine anomaly in the volcanic system.
The uplift contrasts sharply with the rapid ground deformation observed before the 2021 Tajogaite eruption on La Palma, which saw elevations of up to 30 centimetres within a week, coupled with intense seismic activity.
Enhanced Monitoring and Preparations
To better understand these changes, the IGN plans to install inclinometers at depths of 20–30 metres to measure ground tilt more precisely. Collaboration between the IGN and the Canary Islands Volcanology Institute (INVOLCAN) will also intensify, with both organisations pooling data and upgrading monitoring instruments.
Domínguez emphasised the need for preparation: “An eruption in Tenerife could occur in two years or in 50. The key is to stay vigilant and ensure the population are prepared.” Authorities, including the Tenerife Cabildo, are considering public drills to raise awareness and readiness for a volcanic emergency.
Potential Eruption Scenarios
Experts remain uncertain about the nature of a potential eruption. It could be a monogenetic event, like the Tajogaite eruption, or a reawakening of Teide itself, a 3,718 metre stratovolcano formed through repeated eruptions. Historically, Teide eruptions have varied in intensity and impact.
Domínguez noted that a basaltic eruption, similar to that of La Palma, is statistically the most likely scenario. However, the possibility of a more destructive flank eruption, potentially reaching the sea, cannot be ruled out. While some past eruptions of Teide have been explosive, others have not, highlighting the need for further study.
Although the data suggest no immediate danger, the findings highlight the importance of long-term vigilance. Domínguez concluded by stressing the value of time: “We have the opportunity to study, prepare, and refine our understanding of Teide’s behaviour to ensure public safety.”
